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[02-29] [Econmist-社论]Hollywood and the internet 好莱坞和因特网
Hollywood and the internet 好莱坞和因特网
There will be blood 血色将至
Feb 21st 2008
From The Economist print edition
Hollywood is doing its best to ignore the internet. That is a big mistake
好莱坞对因特网嗤之以鼻，谬之深矣
IN 1948, when only one in tenAmericans had seen a TV, Time magazine sized up the new medium. Itsquiz shows, cooking lessons and vaudeville were perfectly watchable, itsaid, but the films were awful. “The ancient cabbages that are rolledacross the telescreen every night are Hollywood's curse on the upstartindustry,” it wrote. “Televiewers, sick of hoary Hoot Gibson oaters andantique spook comedies, wonder when, if ever, they will see fresh,first-class Hollywood films.”
1948年，当只有十分之一的美国人看过电视时，《时代》周刊就掂出了这一新媒体的分量。它的问卷调查显示，烹饪节目和歌舞杂耍节目最受欢迎，电影节目则不怎么受待见。“古老的白菜每天晚上都出现在电视屏幕上，看起来就像好莱坞给新兴的电视业下的咒。”《时代》周刊写道，“电视观众早已厌倦了过时的胡特·吉布森西部片和落伍的惊悚喜剧，人们想要看到的是新鲜出炉的好莱坞大片。”
Sixty years have not done much toalter Tinseltown's instincts. As it prepares for its 80th AcademyAwards this weekend, Hollywood is facing another new medium—theinternet. Instead of using the web to get films to people, studios arestill in the cabbage-rolling business: they use the web mostly as amedium to show dross, and just a handful of decent films. Yet, if thestudios hope that by ignoring the web, Tinseltown can put off change,they are surely wrong (see article). Hollywood needs to confront theweb—by embracing it.
60年过去了，好莱坞的性质并没有多少改变。本周末的第80届奥斯卡颁奖典礼已经准备就绪，但好莱坞正受到另一新媒体的挑战——因特网。眼下，制片商对待网络和当年对待炒白菜节目如出一辙：他们并不把它作为传播影片的方式，而只把它当作偶现佳作的劣质影片秀场。不过，如果制片商以为对网络嗤之以鼻就可以避开变革，那就大错特错了。好莱坞应该以包容的态度面对网络。
In the 1940s the studios feared TVbecause they thought it would destroy movie-theatres. Now they reckonthe internet could spoil sales of DVDs, which in America now bring inabout half of their total revenues. But in 2007 American consumersspent $23.4 billion on DVDs, down 3% from 2006. Studio executives arehoping to offset the decline of the DVD with a new, fancier disc,called Blu-ray, which gives a better picture. In fact sales of the newformat are tiny relative to DVDs—and the demise of HD DVD, Blu-ray'srival, this week is unlikely to change that anytime soon. Meanwhile,box-office revenues from cinemas are flat, and TV channels increasinglyprefer cheap reality programming to Hollywood's flights of fancy.
在1940年代，制片商担忧电视会对院线产生重大冲击。现在，他们认为因特网会抢夺DVD碟片市场，而他们的一半收入要靠DVD来实现。2007年美国消费者在DVD上总共花费234亿美元，比2006年低3%。制片商希望通过推出新一代的画质更清晰的蓝光DVD来对应DVD销量下降。事实上，蓝光DVD的销售和DVD的销量并没有什么关系，而蓝光DVD的竞争对手——高清DVD在本周宣告夭折，这对DVD的销量也不会有什么作用。同时，院线票房表现平淡，电视频道也越来越倾向于播出廉价的真人节目，而不是好莱坞的奇思妙想。
Just as revenues look weak,production and marketing costs have spiralled upwards. A Will Smith ora Johnny Depp gets an upfront $20m, and then 20% of gross receipts whena film brings in more than $100m. At Disney, such payments and variousadd-ons have more than tripled in the past four years. And the studiosare being asked to pay more to talent across the board. Having givenstriking writers better terms on new media, Hollywood faces a walk-outby actors in June. According to Screen Digest, the major studios'entire slate of 132 films from 2006 is set to lose $1.9 billion in cashover the five-year cycle of cinema, DVD, TV and new media.
在收入下降的同时，制片和营销成本却节节攀升。像威尔·史密斯和强尼·戴普这样的演员片酬高达2000万美元，除此之外，如果票房超过1亿，还要从中抽头20%。在迪斯尼公司，片酬以及乱七八糟的追加报酬在4年内增长了翻了3倍多。除了片酬压力，制片商还面临着给全体影片创作人员涨薪的要求。好莱坞刚刚经历了编剧罢工，最后答应给予新媒体编剧更好的待遇，现在有面临着6月份的演员罢工。据Screen Digest称，好莱坞主要片商自2006年以来共拍摄了132部电影，在院线、DVD、电视和新媒体的5年上映周期中总损失将达19亿美元。
Financing is harder to come by,too. As cash from DVDs poured in, Hollywood was able to lure money fromoutside investors, such as banks and hedge funds. It now sits on anestimated $10 billion of other people's money. But many of theoutsiders' films have disappointed at the box office, leaving them withpoor returns. Anyway, banks and hedge funds have other things on theirminds just now. When Hollywood looks for new sources of money, it willprobably have to offer better terms—meaning lower profits for itself.
融资也变得越来越困难。在以前，得益于DVD销售火爆，好莱坞能够从银行和对冲基金等外部投资者那里筹得资金。目前的外部资金规模达100亿美元。然而许多外部投资者的电影票房惨淡，没多少投资回报可言。眼下银行和对冲基金应经开始另作打算了。要想获取新的资金来源，好莱坞就必须提供更优厚的条件——这意味着留给自己的利润进一步缩水。
In the circumstances you wouldhave thought the studios would be falling over themselves to find newsources of revenue online. The success of a film like “Clover field”,which found its audience through marketing almost entirely on theinternet, points to how the core audience for Hollywood—teenagers andyoung adults—is fascinated by all things web-related. In private, evenHollywood studio executives admit that their children don't buy CDs orDVDs: they download.
你可能已经想到了，囿于形势，制片商不得不转向网络寻找新的收入流。影片《苜蓿地》的营销工作几乎完全在因特网上进行，最后大获成功。这表明，只要与网络沾上点边，好莱坞的核心观众群体——青少年和年轻人就乐于接受。甚至好莱坞制片商大佬在私下也承认，他们的子女从来不买CD和DVD，他们下载。
Although the studios spendmillions on websites for every film, none sells the product itself. Itis partly because the DVD business relies on big retailers such asWal-Mart and Best Buy. To keep them happy, Hollywood is holding backmost of its films from the web. In fact, DVDs get people into shops:the stores need the studios as much as the studios need the stores.
尽管制片商为每部影片都花上数百万美元进行网络营销，他们自己却不卖片子。这部分是因为DVD业非常倚赖沃尔玛和百思买这样的零售商。为了取悦零售商，好莱坞绝少在网上发布影片。其实DVD本身就是顾客光临零售店的一大原因：不仅制片商需要零售店，零售店也需要制片商
In addition, Hollywood is terrified of piracy, which is already costing it billions a year in lost revenue. Oneway to control online piracy is to get internet-service providers toprevent illegal downloading—which may be starting to happen. As peopleget used to getting films on the internet, Hollywood needs to persuadethem to choose legal routes by providing top-class movie-downloadservices.
除此之外，好莱坞对盗版也是深恶痛绝。由于盗版，制片商每年要损失数百亿美元收入。制止网络盗版的方法之一是让因特网服务提供商来制止非法下载——行动不久即将展开。对于那些已经习惯于从因特网上下载电影观看的人，好莱坞必须提供优质的影片下载服务，以说服他们选择合法途径获得影片。
Log on, camera, action 登陆，找到电影，观看
Every time Hollywood has offeredpeople a more convenient way to get its films, sales have leapt.Bringing movies into the home via television, VHS and DVD built theindustry into what it is today. The internet may look unfamiliar anddangerous, but it could be the ultimate home-entertainment weapon. Notrip to a thinly stocked retailer, no late fees, no waiting for apackage in the post; instead, on-demand access to any film you want,from the latest blockbuster to the most obscure art-house tear-jerker.Because distribution costs mostly go away, online sales are moreprofitable too. The internet is the industry's best hope for futurerevenue growth. The rightful successor to the DVD is not Blu-ray oranything else. It is the web.
每次好莱坞向人们提供更贴心的影片获取方式，其销售额就会出现跃升。从电视机到家用录像机再到DVD，好莱坞一步步壮大了的今天的规模。因特网看起来陌生而危险，但它有可能成为家庭娱乐的终极方式。从不缺货、没有滞纳金、不必等待送货上门，你随时都可以获得所需要的任何影片，从最新的火爆大片到最阳春白雪的感人文艺片，任君选取。由于几乎没有经销成本，在线影片销售可以获得更高的利润率。好莱坞未来最大的收入增长之源非因特网莫属，取代DVD的也绝不会是蓝光DVD或其他什么东西，而是网络。
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